LC · Factor Donchian · Factors + Defensives

Active Holding▶ LIVE

GLD

Gold · Defensive leadership

Days In

Since

19 Aug 2026

DGRO

Switches

SPMO

$143.66

DGRO

$76.82

SPYG

$119.00

SPHQ

$82.95

IVE

$231.24

GLD

$391.74

DBMF

$32.12

SPY

$754.05

Pairwise Donchian Signal StateN=30 · shift(1) · ratio breakout / latch

Pair

Current

Upper

Lower

Status / Direction

Vote

SPMO/DGRO

1.8701
26% of range

1.9655upper

1.8374lower

flip 62d ago
IN BAND
▼ last down

+1 DGRO
vote

SPMO/SPYG

1.2072
5% of range

1.2668upper

1.2038lower

flip 62d ago
IN BAND
▼ last down

+1 SPYG
vote

SPMO/SPHQ

1.7319
39% of range

1.7802upper

1.7013lower

flip 30d ago
IN BAND
▲ last up

+1 SPMO
vote

SPMO/IVE

0.6213
18% of range

0.6557upper

0.6137lower

flip 62d ago
IN BAND
▼ last down

+1 IVE
vote

SPMO/GLD

0.3667
39% of range

0.4040upper

0.3425lower

flip 51d ago
IN BAND
▼ last down

+1 GLD
vote

SPMO/DBMF

4.4726
3% of range

4.9257upper

4.4569lower

flip 61d ago
IN BAND
▼ last down

+1 DBMF
vote

DGRO/SPYG

0.6455
12% of range

0.6665upper

0.6427lower

flip 98d ago
IN BAND
▲ last up

+1 DGRO
vote

DGRO/SPHQ

0.9261
85% of range

0.9306upper

0.9000lower

flip 71d ago
IN BAND
▲ last up

+1 DGRO
vote

DGRO/IVE

0.3322
27% of range

0.3358upper

0.3309lower

flip 20d ago
IN BAND
▼ last down

+1 IVE
vote

DGRO/GLD

0.1961
42% of range

0.2105upper

0.1856lower

flip 41d ago
IN BAND
▼ last down

+1 GLD
vote

DGRO/DBMF

2.3917
-9% of range

2.5743upper

2.4066lower

flip 7d ago
BELOW
▼ last down

+1 DBMF
vote

SPYG/SPHQ

1.4346
107% of range

1.4315upper

1.3871lower

flip 44d ago
ABOVE
▲ last up

+1 SPYG
vote

SPYG/IVE

0.5146
64% of range

0.5218upper

0.5019lower

flip 82d ago
IN BAND
▼ last down

+1 IVE
vote

SPYG/GLD

0.3038
50% of range

0.3274upper

0.2797lower

flip 28d ago
IN BAND
▼ last down

+1 GLD
vote

SPYG/DBMF

3.7049
3% of range

3.9919upper

3.6948lower

flip 2d ago
IN BAND
▼ last down

+1 DBMF
vote

SPHQ/IVE

0.3587
14% of range

0.3706upper

0.3567lower

flip 63d ago
IN BAND
▼ last down

+1 IVE
vote

SPHQ/GLD

0.2117
34% of range

0.2328upper

0.2011lower

flip 42d ago
IN BAND
▼ last down

+1 GLD
vote

SPHQ/DBMF

2.5825
-1% of range

2.8387upper

2.5862lower

flip 58d ago
BELOW
▼ last down

+1 DBMF
vote

IVE/GLD

0.5903
47% of range

0.6299upper

0.5547lower

flip 41d ago
IN BAND
▼ last down

+1 GLD
vote

IVE/DBMF

7.1993
-8% of range

7.7069upper

7.2348lower

flip 6d ago
BELOW
▼ last down

+1 DBMF
vote

GLD/DBMF

12.1961
0% of range

13.8043upper

12.1916lower

flip 42d ago
IN BAND
▲ last up

+1 GLD
vote

Vote Tally · max 6 per factor · latching signal

GLD

Gold

6

★★★★★★

DBMF

Mgd Futures

5

★★★★★·

IVE

Value

4

★★★★··

DGRO

Div. Growth

3

★★★···

SPYG

Growth

2

★★····

SPMO

Momentum

1

★·····

SPHQ

Quality

0

······

Winner: GLD — Gold (6/6 votes) · Each ratio votes for the ETF breaking above its 30-day Donchian high (latches until broken down).

Performancevs SPY B&H

Since Inception

Ann. Return

+25.2%

SPY: +16.6%

Sharpe Ratio

1.30

SPY: 0.83

Max Drawdown

-16.6%

SPY: -33.7%

Calmar

1.52

SPY: 0.49

200d MA filter (toggle on chart): +25.8% ann · Sharpe 1.37 · MaxDD -16.6% · now CASH · 72 switches

Total Returns

Strategy

+369.5%

since inception

SPY B&H

+187.1%

since inception

Volatility

19.4%

annualised

Regime Allocation

SPMO

SPYG

IVE

GLD

DBMF

SPMO 24%

DGRO 5%

SPYG 16%

IVE 10%

GLD 31%

DBMF 13%

Signal Pipeline N=30 · Shift=1 · Pairwise ratio Donchian · Latching · No confirmation window

⚠ MONITORING

GLD leads by 1 vote · DBMF (5/6) within striking range
Hold GLD · reassess on any pair flip

Current Regime

GLD

Gold · 6/6 votes · 29 days

since 19 Aug 2026 · prev: DGRO

Pairs near boundary · vote could shift

GLD ▼ DBMF  GLD/DBMF · 0%

DGRO ▼ SPYG  DGRO/SPYG · 12%

Vote Spread

GLD

DBMF

IVE

DGRO

SPYG

SPMO

SPHQ

Cumulative Returns — Full Period (rebased 100) Rotation vs Factors vs SPY B&H 200d MA filter

SPMO/DGRO IN BAND

+1 DGRO

SPMO/SPYG IN BAND

+1 SPYG

SPMO/SPHQ IN BAND

+1 SPMO

SPMO/IVE IN BAND

+1 IVE

SPMO/GLD IN BAND

+1 GLD

SPMO/DBMF IN BAND

+1 DBMF

DGRO/SPYG IN BAND

+1 DGRO

DGRO/SPHQ IN BAND

+1 DGRO

DGRO/IVE IN BAND

+1 IVE

DGRO/GLD IN BAND

+1 GLD

DGRO/DBMF BELOW

+1 DBMF

SPYG/SPHQ ABOVE

+1 SPYG

SPYG/IVE IN BAND

+1 IVE

SPYG/GLD IN BAND

+1 GLD

SPYG/DBMF IN BAND

+1 DBMF

SPHQ/IVE IN BAND

+1 IVE

SPHQ/GLD IN BAND

+1 GLD

SPHQ/DBMF BELOW

+1 DBMF

IVE/GLD IN BAND

+1 GLD

IVE/DBMF BELOW

+1 DBMF

GLD/DBMF IN BAND

+1 GLD

Annual ReturnsStrategy vs SPY

Individual Factor Performance (Buy & Hold)

Factor	Ann Ret	Sharpe	Max DD	Total Ret
SPMO Momentum	+21.5%	0.93	-30.9%	+282.6%
DGRO Div. Growth	+13.4%	0.73	-35.1%	+138.0%
SPYG Growth	+18.9%	0.81	-32.7%	+228.1%
SPHQ Quality	+16.1%	0.81	-31.6%	+178.3%
IVE Value	+13.1%	0.70	-37.0%	+132.4%
GLD Gold	+15.5%	0.84	-26.4%	+168.8%
DBMF Mgd Futures	+7.4%	0.59	-23.3%	+63.2%

Switch Log (last 20)Total: 77 switches

Date	From → To
19 Aug 2026	DGRO → GLD
16 Jul 2026	SPMO → DGRO
08 Apr 2026	DBMF → SPMO
18 Mar 2026	GLD → DBMF
02 Sep 2025	SPMO → GLD
12 May 2025	GLD → SPMO
21 Jan 2025	DBMF → GLD
13 Jan 2025	GLD → DBMF
10 Jan 2025	SPYG → GLD
09 Dec 2024	SPMO → SPYG
06 Nov 2024	GLD → SPMO
05 Aug 2024	IVE → GLD
30 Jul 2024	DGRO → IVE
24 Jul 2024	SPYG → DGRO
16 Jul 2024	SPMO → SPYG
07 Jun 2024	SPYG → SPMO
23 May 2024	DGRO → SPYG
15 May 2024	DBMF → DGRO
30 Apr 2024	GLD → DBMF
01 Apr 2024	SPMO → GLD